Reducing ambiguity in agricultural research and development: Insights from a global experiment with plant breeding professionals
CGIAR March 31 2025
Berber Kramer, Carly Trachtman, Jérémy Do Nascimento Miguel
Investment decisions in agricultural research and development (R&D), particularly in plant breeding, often face significant ambiguity. Without clear market intelligence, funds may be spread across many breeding pipelines rather than concentrated in those with the greatest potential impact. A new study from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) explored how plant breeding professionals use market information to prioritize R&D investments and how the quality and source of information influence their decision-making.
The challenge: Managing uncertainty in breeding investments
Public-sector breeding programs invest millions annually to develop improved crop varieties, particularly for smallholder farmers in the global South. Many breeding decisions are based on informal processes of gathering information on demand rather than systematic market research. While transdisciplinary approaches that include social scientists are gaining traction, market research remains underutilized in prioritizing breeding pipelines.
To examine how plant breeding professionals respond to different types of market information, researchers conducted an online experiment. In this experiment, participants from around the world allocated investment funds between two breeding pipelines with varying probabilities of success. Market information ranging from high-quality, rigorous studies to small-scale participatory research was provided at different stages, sometimes free and sometimes at a cost.
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