Market trends reshaping rice-based food systems: Implications for IRRI
IRRI 2025
Rising climate and natural resource risks
Climate change poses a major threat to rice productivity, with the crop facing a dual challenge: adapting to rising climate risks while reducing its environmental footprint. Rice also covers 11% of global arable land but contributes 10% of agricultural emissions—mainly methane from flooded paddies—and uses 40% of the world’s irrigation water. With each 1°C temperature rise potentially cutting tropical rice yields by 10–15%, and extreme weather already causing major food losses, IRRI will lead the shift to climate-smart, nature-positive systems. Solutions include water-saving irrigation systems, stresstolerant varieties, sustainable incentives, carbon finance, and integrated approaches linking genetics, agronomy, and water management. Growing demand for quality nutrition Shifting consumer preferences and rising disease patterns drive demand for sustainable, nutritious rice options. With a focus on quality over quantity, consumers are seeking specialty, organic, and nutrient-enhanced rice. As malnutrition’s triple burden—hidden hunger, overnutrition, and food safety concerns—grows, IRRI will go beyond calorie provision and prioritize nutrition. Key actions include: biofortifying rice with essential nutrients like zinc and protein, integrating nutrition-sensitive traits, diversifying diets through rice-based systems, reducing heavy metals and mycotoxin risks, and ensuring nutritional retention after processing.
Expanding global trade
With rice trade increasing from approximately 15 million tons in the 1990s to over 45 million tons today, market dynamics significantly influence national policies and research priorities. trade disruptions, as seen during the 2007–2008 food crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent export restrictions, highlight the vulnerability of ricedependent nations to market fluctuations. IRRI will navigate trade tensions by: forecasting global trade flows with advanced models, supporting regional food priorities, advising on balancing food sovereignty and trade efficiency, developing sustainable rice standards, and helping countries manage rice reserves and trade policies for food security. The funding game is changing fast Traditional official development assistance (ODA) for agricultural research has declined by about 30% in real terms over the past decade. Meanwhile, private sector investment has grown but remains largely focused on high-income countries. These shifts—alongside deeper South-South collaboration and rising venture capital—are reshaping how agricultural innovation is funded and delivered. IRRI will urgently diversify its income sources—leveraging its position to create South-South pathways and utilizing commercial income streams for public good.
Persistent inequality
Despite economic growth in many rice-growing regions, poverty and inequality persist, particularly for marginalized communities and women. In both South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, women contribute up to 80% of rice production labor but often have limited access to resources, technology, and decision-making power. Smallholder farmers, who produce over 80% of rice in developing countries, frequently receive the smallest share of value chain profits. IRRI will promote inclusive livelihoods by developing genderresponsive technologies, climate-resilient and nutritious varieties, and value chain interventions that empower smallholders—particularly women. Expanding access to digital tools and knowledge for underserved communities is also key to closing these gaps. Accelerated digital transformation Despite the rapidly advancing AI landscape and the growing accessibility of digital and AI solutions, corresponding data remains siloed. Complexities in AI governance, data management, product scaling, carbon credits, financing models, smallholder engagement, and infrastructure further hinder progress. Coupled with the urgent need for faster innovation to build climate resilience and deliver tailored, integrated products, this demands a new AI and digital approach from IRRI. IRRI will strategically partner across the food system to scale, finance, and apply digital innovations for impact. It will also drive data-enabled insights for South-South collaboration and leverage AI and better data management to boost internal efficiency and long-term impact. Evolving partnership landscape IRRI faces constraints in resources for agricultural research in partner countries and increased capacity in others. Public agricultural research investment has dropped by over 25% in some developing countries over the past decade. Meanwhile, national research systems in countries like China, India, and Brazil have developed sophisticated capabilities that sometimes overlap with IRRI’s traditional role. IRRI will rethink its partnership strategy by tailoring approaches to diverse national systems, complementing their efforts based on their research and delivery capacities, fostering collaboration with varied stakeholders, and enhancing South-South knowledge sharing and co-investment models that maximize collective impact.
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