Evolution in pecunia
Amir et al. PNAS June 29, 2021
(149).png)
Figure: Relation between market capitalization and total dividend payouts. The solid lines are the result of a linear regression of logarithms of both quantities and estimated separately for each firm. To compare the shape of the dividend production function across companies, each firm’s market capitalization and dividend payout is divided by the firm’s maximum market capitalization in the sample. General Motors is shown in green, Exxon is in red, and Procter & Gamble is in blue. The fits, measured as R2R2, are 0.73, 0.83, and 0.92, respectively.
The paper models evolution in pecunia—in the realm of finance. Financial markets are explored as evolving biological systems. Diverse investment strategies compete for the market capital invested in long-lived dividend-paying assets. Some strategies survive and some become extinct. The basis of our paper is that dividends are not exogenous but increase with the wealth invested in an asset, as is the case in a production economy. This might create a positive feedback loop in which more investment in some asset leads to higher dividends which in turn lead to higher investments. Nevertheless, we are able to identify a unique evolutionary stable investment strategy. The problem is studied in a framework combining stochastic dynamics and evolutionary game theory. The model proposed employs only objectively observable market data, in contrast with traditional settings relying upon unobservable investors’ characteristics (utilities and beliefs). Our method is analytical and based on mathematical reasoning. A numerical illustration of the main result is provided.
Views: 224